Hunger & Hardship in the Horn

courtesy of BBC online

The Eastern Africa region, like the Sahel, is experiencing what has been described as the "most severe food crisis in the world today", with at least 10 million people affected in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 

Somalia is one of the hardest-hit countries in the region, with deaths being reported in some areas amid alarming malnutrition levels. 

"We are no longer on the verge of a humanitarian disaster; we are in the middle of it now. It is happening and no one is helping," according to Isaq Ahmed, the chairman of the Mubarak Relief and Development Organization (MURDO), a local NGO working in the Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. 

He said: "In the three districts of Qoryoley, Kurtunwarey and Sablale [in Lower Shabelle] our estimate is that some 5,000 families [30,000 people] have been seriously affected by the current drought." 

Ahmed said those who can are moving towards Mogadishu in hope of survival. 

"Those remaining in the area are the ones who cannot even afford transport to Mogadishu," he said, adding that a number of people had died due to a combination of hunger and related diseases. “Most of those who died were children, the elderly, and lactating and pregnant mothers," he said. 

Up to eight people a day were being buried in Lower Shabelle, according to Sultan Sayidali Hassanow Aliyow Ibirow, a senior traditional elder in Lower Shabelle. Most of them were cattle herders who had lost everything. 

"Three years of little or no rain have led to this disaster. People have not recovered from their previous losses and now we have an even worse drought," he said. 

Driest season since 1950 

In many pastoral zones, this is the driest season on record since 1950. Drought conditions in Somalia have had regional implications, with refugees flowing into Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. The irony is that these three countries in particular are also suffering from drought and food shortages and struggling to keep their own populations free from hunger.

According to Save the Children, children arriving from Somalia in the Dadaab refugee camp in northern Kenya are exhausted, malnourished and severely dehydrated. 

"Nearly every child or parent we have spoken to says they are not just fleeing fighting in Somalia - the drought and food crisis are equally perilous to them now,” said Catherine Fitzgibbon, Save the Children's Kenya programme director. 

Experts are warning that the situation could get worse in the short term if the delayed and poor rains cause the current crop to fail. 

In Ethiopia, the estimated number of people in need of emergency food and non-food assistance was revised upwards from 2.8 million to 3.2 million. Nearly two thirds of the requirements were in the southern Somali and Oromia regions as well as in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region, where shortages of water and food were recorded. And if drought were not bad enough, cereal prices have continued to rise, with inflation rates close to 30 percent recorded in April. 

According to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group, a regional forum, the rate of Somali refugees arriving in southern Ethiopia has jumped from 5,000 per month to more than 30,000 in the second week of June. Among new arrivals to the two camps in the Dolo Ado area, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate is 45 percent, way beyond the 15 percent emergency threshold set by the World Health Organization. 

In Djibouti, poor rains from March to May of this year hurt pastoral household food security and sent food prices shooting up. The average price of wheat flour increased by 17 percent between January and February 2011, to US$620 per ton, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Global Information and Early Warning System, GIEWS. 

Rising Prices and Falling Currency in Kenya 

In Kenya, rising inflation rates have also adversely affected poor households’ ability to buy food. Prices of the main staple, maize, have tripled from about 1,300 shillings (US$14.4) in January to 4,500 ($50) for a 90kg bag. 

Recently, the government announced the removal of tax on imported maize in a bid to cushion consumers. But millers say rising global maize prices mean the measure will have little impact on the commodity's prices locally. (Noor Guhad stands in the middle of the dry Oda earth dam, where water would have reached over his head three years ago. Now he has to dig deep to find water. Photo courtesy of www.ifrc.org) 

"The problem has been compounded by the fact that the Kenyan shilling has been on a free-fall, trading at an all-time low [about 90 shillings to the US dollar] not experienced in the country for almost two decades. I do not see the cost of maize dropping any time soon," said one local miller. 

The recent March to May “long rains” in Kenya were poor for the second or third successive season in most rangelands and cropping lowlands, with many of these areas receiving 10-50 percent of normal rains, noted the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET). 

The consequences include declining water and pasture, and subsequent livestock deaths. In the predominantly pastoralist north, a low milk supply has contributed to malnutrition levels soaring above 35 percent. The GAM rate in northwestern Turkana has hit 37.4 percent, the highest ever in the district. 

Nationally, at least 3.2 million people are currently food insecure - up from a projection of 2.4 and 1.6 million in April and January, respectively. 

Even in Kenya’s coastal region, thousands are food insecure, says the Kenya Red Cross Society’s (KRCS) region manager, Gerald Bombe, who oversees a Drought Response operation run jointly with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

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thanks to our good friends at IRIN or the original version of this post.

The stakes just got higher for Yemen

Yemen, reputedly the poorest country in the Arab world, is home to around 20 million people wedged between the Red Sea, the treacherous waters of the Gulf of Aden, Saudi Arabia and Oman, and within wind-surfing distance of Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. (Photo: Guardian.co.uk - Yemeni man sits near the wreckage of a suspected Al Qaeda car bomb attack).

In the wake of the Christmas day misadventures of the 'underpants bomber' on a US-bound flight, we learned of Yemen's role as its al-Qaeda branch claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing. So all eyes are now firmly on Yemen and the usual suspects concerned with battling al-Qaeda have rushed to increase their aid, and specifically their military aid. The US, for example has increased its military aid to Yemen seven-fold in three years while the UK has increased its aid four-fold.

Fragile but not failed

Slightly bigger than Spain and just smaller than Ukraine, Yemen is said to have one of the most open political system on the Arabian Peninsula. But it has also been facing serious challenges arising from the eruption of conflict with Shi'a Houti rebels five years ago in the northern governorate of Saada.

Yemen is a classic fragile (as opposed to ‘failed’) state and after the recent attempted bombing of a US airline it is once again under the scrutiny of countries coalesced to fight 'terror'. Questions are being asked aloud whether extremism can be reversed there and, if not, what this might mean in terms of international military intervention. 


There are many known unknowns surrounding the threat toYemen’s sovereignty and the security of its powerful Saudi neighbors. The hand of Iran is also present and the physical, religious and cultural links with anarchic and conflict-ridden Somalia are obviously reasons for concern. Yemen therefore finds itself in the unenviable position of being a common denominator for many of the key strategic issues and headaches that inform Washington’s view of the Middle East and the “war on terror”.


Protecting the House of Saud and American Foreign Policy

The potential for forces in Yemen to undermine Saudi security (or even oust the ruling family) is the most immediate concern (no need to recall that overthrowing the House of Saud sits atop Al-Qaeda’s manifesto). This is not just a fanciful notion, Saudi Arabia and others are extremely fearful that a well-organized al-Qaeda with a foothold in Yemen can spread operations with relative ease over the border. 

If you are a policy geek in Washington or London or Cairo or Tel Aviv or - well you get the picture - this is not a scenario you want to contemplate, but contemplate it you must. Much of US and western foreign policy towards the Middle East (and the wider Muslim world thanks to the 'war on terror') hinges itself precariously between Cairo and Riyadh, and everything will be done to ensure the hinges remain tightly bolted to their buttressed frames. 

Anything that threatens to undermine this policy will be swiftly and urgently dealt with by the US and its allies as the alternatives are unthinkable. Should things unhinge we would rapidly see a bloody redrawing of borders all over the Middle East, the redistribution of wealth to new power brokers - with unfavorable repercussions for the current international economic systems and trade routes - and a ferocious showdown between Shi'a and Sunni forces in pursuit of hegemonic dominance. 

Above all it could signal the end of American influence in the Middle East, including a sucker punch to its most-favored ally, the fledgling State of Israel. These are the types of stakes being played out today on a blackjack table that stretches from Tehran to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Lebanon and Syria to Israel and Occupied Palestine, from Sudan to Somalia and, not least, Yemen. And the stakes in Yemen just got much much higher.

Military Outlook and the Somali factor

Given Yemen's high geo-strategic value and its potential influence in the Arab street, such fears seem valid when one considers that the Sana’a government is battling for its life on at least three fronts: fighting against al-Qaeda, facing a Shi'a rebellion in the north and a strong separatist movement in the south. Among the many known unknowns is the pivotal question of whether external military support or intervention will do more harm than good. 

Scenarios are surfacing too of a link between Yemeni and Somali militants (more plausible than preposterous I would think) moving virtually unchecked between the two countries through the lawless, pirate-ridden waters of the Gulf of Aden. Al Shabab, the Somali armed Islamist group, recently played on such fears, vowing to cross the straits and defend Yemen against any American military intervention there. 

This is another nightmare scenario for the policy geeks. It's bad enough Somalia's Islamic brand of anarchy corroding friendly neighborhoods and US allies like Kenya and Ethiopia but if it were to cross the Red Sea and set up shop in the Middle East ... In this context, one might understand why Yemen has rejected the possibility of American intervention. 

Chewin' the Qat

Many Yemen watchers will tell you that to understand it you have to understand Qat - the drug of choice in Yemen. Its consumption is deeply rooted in Yemeni culture, and has long been exported to its neighbors and allies across the Gulf of Aden. 

Qat is chewed by men and women and is known for its narcotic properties. This phenomenon involves 80% of people spending many hours a day chewing Qat.  What's more the country's ground water is rapidly drying up due to 80% of water being used for Qat cultivation. In essence Qat is the economy and yet hamstrings the economy; a plant that energizes while paradoxically producing societal apathy. Qat is also a very social drug, a very talkative time in your average Yemeni's day so, who knows, Yemen could be the first place where Al-Q and their adversaries start chewing the fat over the Qat (sorry, couldn't resist that).

Shifting gears

Qat apart, the mix of conflict and poverty, natural disasters and climate change, migration and instability, guarantees that Yemen will be an important context for political, military and humanitarian focus over the next number of years starting right now. Indeed, one could argue, it is precisely these factors of chronic underdevelopment that has made Yemen so susceptible to Al Qaeda and irascible conflicts in the first place. 

In 2010 it is certain that the "war on terror" will expand (as opposed to shift) its focus to Yemen – the real battleground is still Afghanistan-Pakistan (and there is still a war in Iraq). A country that till now ‘only’ earned the attention of old school spies and a few hi-tech drones can now expect much more robust involvement from the US, Saudi Arabia and allies. In other words, when the stakes get high, the high rollers follow.

/PC

Bring out your Dead

Digging a Pauper's grave in Bulawayo (left)

You know a country has reached the bottom when its dead must suffer the indignity of mass burial because funeral costs are out of reach.

Zimbabwe's economic meltdown has prevented families from claiming bodies as funeral costs have become unaffordable.

Unemployment is calculated at 94 percent and more than half the population survives on donor food assistance.

The mortuary crisis has become so acute that on Valentine's Day - 14 February - the Bulawayo Residents Association (BURA), together with churches, businesses, funeral parlours and the Zimbabwe Prisons Service (ZPS), conducted a pauper's burial for 65 people whose bodies had languished in the city's morgues for over six months.

A simple wooden casket is priced at between US$350 and US$400, a sum beyond the reach of nearly all Zimbabweans. Read the full story.

This illustrative story joins a littany of others, just as harrowing. It would have been unimaginable only a few years ago to envisage such a precarious situation for Zimbabwe. Once the breadbasket of the continent it is now fully reliant on food aid, struggling to combat cholera and apparently experiencing an economic self-destruct.

The cholera crisis is a manifestation of a more fundamental humanitarian challenge underscored by food insecurity and the complete collapse of the health system. The President of MSF, Dr. Christoph Fournier, has just visited Zimbabwe and had this to say:

"The cholera outbreak, even if it is still not under control, is just the visible manifestation of this whole crisis," Dr Fournier added.

"Governments and international agencies must recognise the severity of this crisis and ensure that the provision of humanitarian aid remains distinct from political processes.

"Their policies towards Zimbabwe must not come at the expense of the humanitarian imperative to ensure that malnourished children, victims of violence and people with HIV/Aids or other illnesses have unhindered access to the assistance they need to survive." The full report of his visit plus a podcast is available on the BBC website.

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Early Warning, Early Action

The Kenyan Red Cross takes preemptive action to stave off hunger in the drought-ridden east of the country.

Kenya is a country known mostly in 'the west' as a tourist haven and as one of Africa's better equipped economies. However, severe drought in the east has put as many as 10 million people at risk of starvation.

As written in an earlier blog such preventative action is not without risks. Donors are more accustomed to 'reacting' to emergency situations rather than trying to address causes before whole communities are decimated by famine.

Through its dynamic CEO, Abbas Gullet, the Kenyan Red Cross is working hard to create awareness and raise the required funds. They should be roundly applauded for addressing humanitarian needs in such a proactive fashion.

The International Red Cross is supporting its member national society on the ground and is scaling up its operations to address the chronic food security crisis in the Horn of Africa today where as many as 20 million people are considered at risk of starvation. Read this on the ground report by Anne Wanjiru, Titus Mung’ou and Andrei Engstrand-Neacsu in Yatta and Kiboko, east Kenya:

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Famine stalks Ethiopia yet again

Here is a compelling report from the field by a Red Cross writer, Alex Wynter. It portrays the enormous challenges facing the people in Negele, southern Oromiya, Ethiopia, as they struggle to feed their families and maintain their livlihoods.

In 'the business' of humanitarian aid, this is categorized as "a slow onset disaster" -- this type of scenario is notoriously difficult to promote in the media and to raise funds for. It seems, sadly, we still live in a world where it takes tv images of emaciated, starving children before we 'react'. To prevent such disasters is logically and financially much more sensible but it is rare.

What is unique also about the current drought in Ethiopia and throughout the rest of the horn of Africa is that it is provoked almost exclusively by external factors such as climate, rising fuel and food prices and the sudden devaluation of the dollar. This is well outlined in an assessment report produced by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies last December.

See more reports from the field by Alex Wynter on www.ifrc.org/foodcrisis.


/PC