The stakes just got higher for Yemen

Yemen, reputedly the poorest country in the Arab world, is home to around 20 million people wedged between the Red Sea, the treacherous waters of the Gulf of Aden, Saudi Arabia and Oman, and within wind-surfing distance of Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. (Photo: Guardian.co.uk - Yemeni man sits near the wreckage of a suspected Al Qaeda car bomb attack).

In the wake of the Christmas day misadventures of the 'underpants bomber' on a US-bound flight, we learned of Yemen's role as its al-Qaeda branch claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing. So all eyes are now firmly on Yemen and the usual suspects concerned with battling al-Qaeda have rushed to increase their aid, and specifically their military aid. The US, for example has increased its military aid to Yemen seven-fold in three years while the UK has increased its aid four-fold.

Fragile but not failed

Slightly bigger than Spain and just smaller than Ukraine, Yemen is said to have one of the most open political system on the Arabian Peninsula. But it has also been facing serious challenges arising from the eruption of conflict with Shi'a Houti rebels five years ago in the northern governorate of Saada.

Yemen is a classic fragile (as opposed to ‘failed’) state and after the recent attempted bombing of a US airline it is once again under the scrutiny of countries coalesced to fight 'terror'. Questions are being asked aloud whether extremism can be reversed there and, if not, what this might mean in terms of international military intervention. 


There are many known unknowns surrounding the threat toYemen’s sovereignty and the security of its powerful Saudi neighbors. The hand of Iran is also present and the physical, religious and cultural links with anarchic and conflict-ridden Somalia are obviously reasons for concern. Yemen therefore finds itself in the unenviable position of being a common denominator for many of the key strategic issues and headaches that inform Washington’s view of the Middle East and the “war on terror”.


Protecting the House of Saud and American Foreign Policy

The potential for forces in Yemen to undermine Saudi security (or even oust the ruling family) is the most immediate concern (no need to recall that overthrowing the House of Saud sits atop Al-Qaeda’s manifesto). This is not just a fanciful notion, Saudi Arabia and others are extremely fearful that a well-organized al-Qaeda with a foothold in Yemen can spread operations with relative ease over the border. 

If you are a policy geek in Washington or London or Cairo or Tel Aviv or - well you get the picture - this is not a scenario you want to contemplate, but contemplate it you must. Much of US and western foreign policy towards the Middle East (and the wider Muslim world thanks to the 'war on terror') hinges itself precariously between Cairo and Riyadh, and everything will be done to ensure the hinges remain tightly bolted to their buttressed frames. 

Anything that threatens to undermine this policy will be swiftly and urgently dealt with by the US and its allies as the alternatives are unthinkable. Should things unhinge we would rapidly see a bloody redrawing of borders all over the Middle East, the redistribution of wealth to new power brokers - with unfavorable repercussions for the current international economic systems and trade routes - and a ferocious showdown between Shi'a and Sunni forces in pursuit of hegemonic dominance. 

Above all it could signal the end of American influence in the Middle East, including a sucker punch to its most-favored ally, the fledgling State of Israel. These are the types of stakes being played out today on a blackjack table that stretches from Tehran to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Lebanon and Syria to Israel and Occupied Palestine, from Sudan to Somalia and, not least, Yemen. And the stakes in Yemen just got much much higher.

Military Outlook and the Somali factor

Given Yemen's high geo-strategic value and its potential influence in the Arab street, such fears seem valid when one considers that the Sana’a government is battling for its life on at least three fronts: fighting against al-Qaeda, facing a Shi'a rebellion in the north and a strong separatist movement in the south. Among the many known unknowns is the pivotal question of whether external military support or intervention will do more harm than good. 

Scenarios are surfacing too of a link between Yemeni and Somali militants (more plausible than preposterous I would think) moving virtually unchecked between the two countries through the lawless, pirate-ridden waters of the Gulf of Aden. Al Shabab, the Somali armed Islamist group, recently played on such fears, vowing to cross the straits and defend Yemen against any American military intervention there. 

This is another nightmare scenario for the policy geeks. It's bad enough Somalia's Islamic brand of anarchy corroding friendly neighborhoods and US allies like Kenya and Ethiopia but if it were to cross the Red Sea and set up shop in the Middle East ... In this context, one might understand why Yemen has rejected the possibility of American intervention. 

Chewin' the Qat

Many Yemen watchers will tell you that to understand it you have to understand Qat - the drug of choice in Yemen. Its consumption is deeply rooted in Yemeni culture, and has long been exported to its neighbors and allies across the Gulf of Aden. 

Qat is chewed by men and women and is known for its narcotic properties. This phenomenon involves 80% of people spending many hours a day chewing Qat.  What's more the country's ground water is rapidly drying up due to 80% of water being used for Qat cultivation. In essence Qat is the economy and yet hamstrings the economy; a plant that energizes while paradoxically producing societal apathy. Qat is also a very social drug, a very talkative time in your average Yemeni's day so, who knows, Yemen could be the first place where Al-Q and their adversaries start chewing the fat over the Qat (sorry, couldn't resist that).

Shifting gears

Qat apart, the mix of conflict and poverty, natural disasters and climate change, migration and instability, guarantees that Yemen will be an important context for political, military and humanitarian focus over the next number of years starting right now. Indeed, one could argue, it is precisely these factors of chronic underdevelopment that has made Yemen so susceptible to Al Qaeda and irascible conflicts in the first place. 

In 2010 it is certain that the "war on terror" will expand (as opposed to shift) its focus to Yemen – the real battleground is still Afghanistan-Pakistan (and there is still a war in Iraq). A country that till now ‘only’ earned the attention of old school spies and a few hi-tech drones can now expect much more robust involvement from the US, Saudi Arabia and allies. In other words, when the stakes get high, the high rollers follow.

/PC

Conflict, Climate and Fragility

An excellent new report from the peace-building organization International Alert presents a strong case for better understanding the relationship between conflict and climate. 

In all the talk about adapting to climate change, "scant attention" is being paid to "the dangers of ... [adaptation strategies] going astray in fragile and conflict-affected" countries, warned a report released on 28 November.

Just under three billion people live in 46 conflict-affected countries, where climate change could create a high risk of violent conflict, according to International Alert's research.

In its latest report the NGO urged policy-makers to take into account the interaction between the impact of climate change and "the social and political realities in which people live that will determine" their capacity to adapt.

The political dimension of adapting to climate change, and the underlying causes of vulnerability in a fragile state that cannon carry out its core functions has to be factored in, as "technical fixes will only act as sticking plasters" cautioned  the report’s authors, Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda.

"It is difficult to walk the line between alarmism and complacency," said Smith. "There is no point in exaggerating the risks, but there is equally no point in denying that with each year of inaction the risks of climate-related conflict and political instability increase."

He cited conflict-ridden Yemen where the water situation is "dire", to illustrate the impact of stress on essential resources in a fragile country. Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, is expected to run out of water in 10 to 15 years. "The consequences for the people of Yemen of worsening water shortage could be catastrophic. The risk of the state ceasing to be effective cannot be discounted.

The ground reality 

Policies for adapting to water stresses brought on partly by climate change in many conflict-ridden countries, particularly in the Arab region, were not being given priority, according to Hosny Khordagui, Director of the Water Governance Program in Arab States.

The Arab region - the Middle East and North Africa - is home to five percent of the world's population but has access to only one percent of global fresh water resources; according to the UN it is the most water-stressed region in the world.

Some of the world's biggest and longest-running conflicts are also playing out here: in Iraq, Sudan and the Israeli-occupied Palestinian and Syrian territories.

A rising number of droughts, lower water levels in rivers, stunted agricultural production, and sea level rise brought on by climate change will turn millions of people, particularly in the Nile River Delta and the coastal areas in the Persian Gulf, into "environmental refugees", warned the UNDP Arab Human Development Report 2009.

Tensions over natural resources not only pose a threat to security among communities, but also nationally and regionally. The UNDP report cited Sudan, which has "experienced internal conflicts in Darfur ... between pastoralists and farmers over access to water sources", and Palestinian farmers, who "suffer because Israeli settlers monopolize most ground water sources".

Climate-Proofing Peace Builing

International Alert recommended that adaptation strategies should be more conflict-sensitive, so that water management in water stressed countries was shaped by understanding the systems of power and equity: involve everyone and avoid pitting groups against each other.

Peace-building needed to be climate-proofed by paying attention to the availability of resources for livelihoods such as agriculture - which could be under pressure because of climate change - for returning ex-combatants or people displaced by conflict.

The International Alert report cited Liberia, which is in the process of recovery from war. Many returnees and ex-combatants will come back to villages and make a living from agriculture, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global scientific body, has projected that crop yields in parts of West Africa could halve by 2020.

"The prospect arises of returned fighters becoming resentful unemployed farmers, and thus potential recruits, with their combat experience, in a new conflict," the authors commented.

The efforts of rich countries to shift to a low-carbon economy must be peace-friendly and supportive of development. The International Alert report noted that the diversion of food crops and land use to biofuel production had played a role in pushing food prices up in 2007/08, causing conflict in many countries.

The capacity to absorb is absent

Vulnerability to climate change is also about the capacity to adapt and many countries do not have the money to make themselves resilient. The UNDP report noted for instance that the Arab region would need around US$73 billion, an annual average of $2.6 billion over the next three decades, to enhance its desalination capacity to provide fresh water. 

Many countries do not have the information or the capacity to factor the impact of climate change into their policies.  They need more reliable regional and country-specific data to be able to plan; they also need to identify the most vulnerable communities to help them become resilient. 

International Alert is an independent peacebuilding organisation that has worked for over 20 years to lay the foundations for lasting peace and security in communities affected by violent conflict. Our multifaceted approach focuses both in and across various regions; aiming to shape policies and practices that affect peacebuilding; and helping build skills and capacity through training. This post was based on an original report published by our good friends in IRIN.

/PC

Gaza: 1.5 million people trapped in despair

Last March, as the international community grandly pledged an impressive U$4.5 billion dollars for the reconstruction of Gaza, HDEO welcomed the support but - based on a long list of previous and direct experiences - cautioned against optimism. Why so skeptical? Because recent history has shown the detached intransigence of Israeli authorities to allow the transit of vital goods and materials to meet the needs of long-suffering Gazans. Regrettably, we were not wrong.

Gaza: What is essentially a political problem has been converted – through restrictions, blockades and military operations - into a pitiful humanitarian crisis. And of course, it is sadly ironic that while Israel prevents the rebuilding of family homes and businesses in Gaza, it is at the same time at loggerheads with the Obama administration on what it perceives as Israel's 'right' to continue building illegal settlements on occupied Palestinian lands in the West Bank. And build it does; nearly U$260m allocated in Israel's budget for settlement expansion according to a recent report from Peace Now, an Israeli NGO.

The people of Gaza are steadily being deprived of basic necessities and the densely populated coastal strip is being transformed before our eyes from a once bustling mercantile centre into a barricaded sewage-covered refugee camp. Perfect if you want to project Gaza as 'only' a humanitarian crisis which can be remedied with plastic sheeting and dried milk.

Not so very long ago, during the upbeat days of the Oslo peace negotiations, Gaza was being championed as the ideal setting for a free trade haven a la Dubai. How their dreams have been splattered in the rubble. As one prominent Palestinian politician said to me privately: "They promised us Singapore and what did we get? We got Somalia". And he's not wrong. Today, instead of living in apartments with clean running water, families are forced to build mud huts and survive under tents and tarpaulin amidst the stench of untreated waste because essential raw materials are withheld on the dubious pretext that they will be dual-purposed into home made rockets.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has released an excellent report to mark the six months since the Gaza conflict escalated at the end of December last year. It recalls how more than 1’300 lives were lost and tens of thousands injured, many of them severely. In the words of an ICRC surgeon, "we treat very few combatants here, most of the patients are civilians".

Tens of thousands of homes and businesses were damaged beyond repair. This has "ripped the economic heart out of Gaza" which was already shattered by decades of conflict and deprivation.

The heavy restrictions on goods entering Gaza means that prices of scarce commodities in the Strip are extremely high, pushing people further and further into debt and poverty. As one man says in the video embedded in this post: "We are exhausted and drowning in debt".

More than six months since the recent escalation in Gaza and some three months since U$4.5 billion was 'pledged' but not spent, is there real political will to ensure that the people of Gaza are not battered back to stone age conditions, living in a sewage-filled environment, without adequate shelter, health care or education (the list is long)?

Urgent measures called upon in the report include easing imports of medical equipment, allowing the entry of building materials such as cement and steel, lifting restrictions on exports from Gaza, reopening terminals to improve the flow of people and goods into and out of the territory, allowing farmers access to their land in the buffer zone, and restoring safe access to deeper waters for fishermen.

Antoine Grand, a colleague at the ICRC who runs the Gaza operation, puts it best: "Israel has the right to protect its population against attacks, but does that mean that 1.5 million people in Gaza do not have the right to live a normal life?"

And this just in: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8127145.stm

And this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8127144.stm

/PC