Yemen's elusive peace

Recent declarations of peace breaking out in Yemen seem to be a tad premature. A fragile ceasefire between the army and Houthi-led rebels in northern Yemen has been put under renewed strain following the deaths of three government followers in clashes with the rebels that left a dozen others injured, according to local witnesses from the Bani Awair area of Saada Governorate. (Photo: Waiting to go home - IDPs receiving aid in Al Ghubba, Yemen).

The Houthis accuse Bani Awair local authorities of giving fighters cash and weapons to attack their followers. 

“Local tribesmen, receiving support from the government, set up an ambush against many of our men, killing one of them and injuring another two,” Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdussalam has claimed, adding that the Houthis were determined to uphold the 11 February ceasefire despite provocation.

He accused the government of fomenting tensions just as life was gradually returning to some sort of normality in the war-ravaged north, a charge the government denied and lobbed back at the rebels. 

Abdullah Dhahban, a Saada council member, said the government was determined to restore peace and stability to Saada and blamed Houthis for hindering the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes. “Efforts to promptly return IDPs have stopped as a result of ongoing violations committed by Houthi gunmen,” he said. 

According to aid agencies on the ground, more than 250,000 people have been displaced by the six-year-old conflict and very few have returned due to the volatile situation in Saada. 

According to the UN’s Humanitarian Affairs office (OCHA), progress in implementing the six ceasefire conditions of the “sixth Saada war” since 2004 is very slow and the situation remains fragile. 

“There is some concern that unless the underlying causes of the conflict are addressed with a comprehensive peace agreement, there may be further unrest,” an OCHA spokesperson said. 

Many analysts expect a seventh war to erupt at any time because the real causes of the dispute have not been addressed by the government. 


Check out here a previous HDEO blog post about Yemen's geo-strategic importance

Conflict, Climate and Fragility

An excellent new report from the peace-building organization International Alert presents a strong case for better understanding the relationship between conflict and climate. 

In all the talk about adapting to climate change, "scant attention" is being paid to "the dangers of ... [adaptation strategies] going astray in fragile and conflict-affected" countries, warned a report released on 28 November.

Just under three billion people live in 46 conflict-affected countries, where climate change could create a high risk of violent conflict, according to International Alert's research.

In its latest report the NGO urged policy-makers to take into account the interaction between the impact of climate change and "the social and political realities in which people live that will determine" their capacity to adapt.

The political dimension of adapting to climate change, and the underlying causes of vulnerability in a fragile state that cannon carry out its core functions has to be factored in, as "technical fixes will only act as sticking plasters" cautioned  the report’s authors, Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda.

"It is difficult to walk the line between alarmism and complacency," said Smith. "There is no point in exaggerating the risks, but there is equally no point in denying that with each year of inaction the risks of climate-related conflict and political instability increase."

He cited conflict-ridden Yemen where the water situation is "dire", to illustrate the impact of stress on essential resources in a fragile country. Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, is expected to run out of water in 10 to 15 years. "The consequences for the people of Yemen of worsening water shortage could be catastrophic. The risk of the state ceasing to be effective cannot be discounted.

The ground reality 

Policies for adapting to water stresses brought on partly by climate change in many conflict-ridden countries, particularly in the Arab region, were not being given priority, according to Hosny Khordagui, Director of the Water Governance Program in Arab States.

The Arab region - the Middle East and North Africa - is home to five percent of the world's population but has access to only one percent of global fresh water resources; according to the UN it is the most water-stressed region in the world.

Some of the world's biggest and longest-running conflicts are also playing out here: in Iraq, Sudan and the Israeli-occupied Palestinian and Syrian territories.

A rising number of droughts, lower water levels in rivers, stunted agricultural production, and sea level rise brought on by climate change will turn millions of people, particularly in the Nile River Delta and the coastal areas in the Persian Gulf, into "environmental refugees", warned the UNDP Arab Human Development Report 2009.

Tensions over natural resources not only pose a threat to security among communities, but also nationally and regionally. The UNDP report cited Sudan, which has "experienced internal conflicts in Darfur ... between pastoralists and farmers over access to water sources", and Palestinian farmers, who "suffer because Israeli settlers monopolize most ground water sources".

Climate-Proofing Peace Builing

International Alert recommended that adaptation strategies should be more conflict-sensitive, so that water management in water stressed countries was shaped by understanding the systems of power and equity: involve everyone and avoid pitting groups against each other.

Peace-building needed to be climate-proofed by paying attention to the availability of resources for livelihoods such as agriculture - which could be under pressure because of climate change - for returning ex-combatants or people displaced by conflict.

The International Alert report cited Liberia, which is in the process of recovery from war. Many returnees and ex-combatants will come back to villages and make a living from agriculture, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global scientific body, has projected that crop yields in parts of West Africa could halve by 2020.

"The prospect arises of returned fighters becoming resentful unemployed farmers, and thus potential recruits, with their combat experience, in a new conflict," the authors commented.

The efforts of rich countries to shift to a low-carbon economy must be peace-friendly and supportive of development. The International Alert report noted that the diversion of food crops and land use to biofuel production had played a role in pushing food prices up in 2007/08, causing conflict in many countries.

The capacity to absorb is absent

Vulnerability to climate change is also about the capacity to adapt and many countries do not have the money to make themselves resilient. The UNDP report noted for instance that the Arab region would need around US$73 billion, an annual average of $2.6 billion over the next three decades, to enhance its desalination capacity to provide fresh water. 

Many countries do not have the information or the capacity to factor the impact of climate change into their policies.  They need more reliable regional and country-specific data to be able to plan; they also need to identify the most vulnerable communities to help them become resilient. 

International Alert is an independent peacebuilding organisation that has worked for over 20 years to lay the foundations for lasting peace and security in communities affected by violent conflict. Our multifaceted approach focuses both in and across various regions; aiming to shape policies and practices that affect peacebuilding; and helping build skills and capacity through training. This post was based on an original report published by our good friends in IRIN.

/PC

Rebuilding Hope and Homes in Gaza

Next week, the powers that be, will assemble in Sharm el Sheik in Egypt to hammer out an aid package to rebuild Gaza. Three weeks (actually 22 days) of intensive fighting and bombardment left some 1300 Palestinians dead, about a quarter of them children. Israel declared a sudden and unilateral ceasefire and withdrew leaving stunned Gazans to pick up the pieces of thier broken lives and thier destroyed towns, villages, neighbourhoods and farms.

During the early days of the conflict which started on 27th of December 2008, I was constantly on the phone to several friends living in Gaza and in Israel itself (I had lived and worked in the region for two years until June 2008). For Gazans, in particular, it is important to understand that this was merely another escalation - albeit one of enormous magnitude and destruction - in the ongoing conflict with Israel. For Israelis it was yet again another moment to rally around a military offensive and support thier troops, protect thier sovereignity and demand their right to live in security - nothing less could be expected.

Israel's right to self-determination is not a question for me but the proportionality of its 'legitimate' response to home made rocket attacks shocked even hardened IDF veterans (IDF is the Israeli Defence Forces). Indeed the head of the International Red Cross in Gaza in one of several tv reports stated clearly that Israel failed in its obligations to abide by international law, especially when it came to facilitating access to the wounded and dead. In a particularily shocking incident in Zeitoun the Red Cross came across starving children, lying by the bodies of thier dead mothers. The Red Cross had been prevented for days by the IDF from reaching them and exceptionally spoke out against the disrespect for its cherished neutrality.

The political repercussions of this latest round of conflict will become apparent in time. A possible positive was reported today concerning committments from the main Palestinian groups to work together for the unity and benefit of its people. On the humanitarian side, more than 4000 people are left with horrific injuries; infrastrucure - which prior to the military offensive was already delapidated - is now completely defunct; schools, hospitals and homes need to be rebuilt (it is estimated that in three short weeks 15% of Gazas buildings were destroyed). The UN already estimates that it will take U$2billion to rebuild Gaza back to even a basic operating level.

Almost 7 years ago the world deplored a similar scene as the West Bank was brought to its knees when a wave of suicide attacks inside Israel prompted the IDF to launch Operation Defensive Shield. This also took approximately three weeks and in that operation 500 Palestinians were reported to have been killed, 1500 wounded and some U$360m worth of destruction caused.

During this latest round of hostilities the facilities of the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) alone will cost some U$20 million to rebuild and replace. The PRCS is well-placed to assess the real needs and deliver where it matters. They are still the only organization present all over the Occupied Terriotories at the grassroots level. Lets hope the PRCS is given the means to get back on its feet and serve the people of Gaza as it has done for 40 years or more - if this happens at least some positives will come from yet another major donor conference aimed at pledging to repair the massive damage wrought by war.

/PC