The stakes just got higher for Yemen

Yemen, reputedly the poorest country in the Arab world, is home to around 20 million people wedged between the Red Sea, the treacherous waters of the Gulf of Aden, Saudi Arabia and Oman, and within wind-surfing distance of Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. (Photo: Guardian.co.uk - Yemeni man sits near the wreckage of a suspected Al Qaeda car bomb attack).

In the wake of the Christmas day misadventures of the 'underpants bomber' on a US-bound flight, we learned of Yemen's role as its al-Qaeda branch claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing. So all eyes are now firmly on Yemen and the usual suspects concerned with battling al-Qaeda have rushed to increase their aid, and specifically their military aid. The US, for example has increased its military aid to Yemen seven-fold in three years while the UK has increased its aid four-fold.

Fragile but not failed

Slightly bigger than Spain and just smaller than Ukraine, Yemen is said to have one of the most open political system on the Arabian Peninsula. But it has also been facing serious challenges arising from the eruption of conflict with Shi'a Houti rebels five years ago in the northern governorate of Saada.

Yemen is a classic fragile (as opposed to ‘failed’) state and after the recent attempted bombing of a US airline it is once again under the scrutiny of countries coalesced to fight 'terror'. Questions are being asked aloud whether extremism can be reversed there and, if not, what this might mean in terms of international military intervention. 


There are many known unknowns surrounding the threat toYemen’s sovereignty and the security of its powerful Saudi neighbors. The hand of Iran is also present and the physical, religious and cultural links with anarchic and conflict-ridden Somalia are obviously reasons for concern. Yemen therefore finds itself in the unenviable position of being a common denominator for many of the key strategic issues and headaches that inform Washington’s view of the Middle East and the “war on terror”.


Protecting the House of Saud and American Foreign Policy

The potential for forces in Yemen to undermine Saudi security (or even oust the ruling family) is the most immediate concern (no need to recall that overthrowing the House of Saud sits atop Al-Qaeda’s manifesto). This is not just a fanciful notion, Saudi Arabia and others are extremely fearful that a well-organized al-Qaeda with a foothold in Yemen can spread operations with relative ease over the border. 

If you are a policy geek in Washington or London or Cairo or Tel Aviv or - well you get the picture - this is not a scenario you want to contemplate, but contemplate it you must. Much of US and western foreign policy towards the Middle East (and the wider Muslim world thanks to the 'war on terror') hinges itself precariously between Cairo and Riyadh, and everything will be done to ensure the hinges remain tightly bolted to their buttressed frames. 

Anything that threatens to undermine this policy will be swiftly and urgently dealt with by the US and its allies as the alternatives are unthinkable. Should things unhinge we would rapidly see a bloody redrawing of borders all over the Middle East, the redistribution of wealth to new power brokers - with unfavorable repercussions for the current international economic systems and trade routes - and a ferocious showdown between Shi'a and Sunni forces in pursuit of hegemonic dominance. 

Above all it could signal the end of American influence in the Middle East, including a sucker punch to its most-favored ally, the fledgling State of Israel. These are the types of stakes being played out today on a blackjack table that stretches from Tehran to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Lebanon and Syria to Israel and Occupied Palestine, from Sudan to Somalia and, not least, Yemen. And the stakes in Yemen just got much much higher.

Military Outlook and the Somali factor

Given Yemen's high geo-strategic value and its potential influence in the Arab street, such fears seem valid when one considers that the Sana’a government is battling for its life on at least three fronts: fighting against al-Qaeda, facing a Shi'a rebellion in the north and a strong separatist movement in the south. Among the many known unknowns is the pivotal question of whether external military support or intervention will do more harm than good. 

Scenarios are surfacing too of a link between Yemeni and Somali militants (more plausible than preposterous I would think) moving virtually unchecked between the two countries through the lawless, pirate-ridden waters of the Gulf of Aden. Al Shabab, the Somali armed Islamist group, recently played on such fears, vowing to cross the straits and defend Yemen against any American military intervention there. 

This is another nightmare scenario for the policy geeks. It's bad enough Somalia's Islamic brand of anarchy corroding friendly neighborhoods and US allies like Kenya and Ethiopia but if it were to cross the Red Sea and set up shop in the Middle East ... In this context, one might understand why Yemen has rejected the possibility of American intervention. 

Chewin' the Qat

Many Yemen watchers will tell you that to understand it you have to understand Qat - the drug of choice in Yemen. Its consumption is deeply rooted in Yemeni culture, and has long been exported to its neighbors and allies across the Gulf of Aden. 

Qat is chewed by men and women and is known for its narcotic properties. This phenomenon involves 80% of people spending many hours a day chewing Qat.  What's more the country's ground water is rapidly drying up due to 80% of water being used for Qat cultivation. In essence Qat is the economy and yet hamstrings the economy; a plant that energizes while paradoxically producing societal apathy. Qat is also a very social drug, a very talkative time in your average Yemeni's day so, who knows, Yemen could be the first place where Al-Q and their adversaries start chewing the fat over the Qat (sorry, couldn't resist that).

Shifting gears

Qat apart, the mix of conflict and poverty, natural disasters and climate change, migration and instability, guarantees that Yemen will be an important context for political, military and humanitarian focus over the next number of years starting right now. Indeed, one could argue, it is precisely these factors of chronic underdevelopment that has made Yemen so susceptible to Al Qaeda and irascible conflicts in the first place. 

In 2010 it is certain that the "war on terror" will expand (as opposed to shift) its focus to Yemen – the real battleground is still Afghanistan-Pakistan (and there is still a war in Iraq). A country that till now ‘only’ earned the attention of old school spies and a few hi-tech drones can now expect much more robust involvement from the US, Saudi Arabia and allies. In other words, when the stakes get high, the high rollers follow.

/PC

Droning on, the Cubicle Warriors

War is peace, the party said, in Orwell’s prescient 1984. My first reaction when I saw Obama had won the Nobel peace prize was one of satisfaction, that this man of relative peace (compared to his predecessor) had been honoured, perhaps too soon, but honoured nonetheless. I was a bit peeved for Morgan Tvangirai, a mighty man if ever there was one, but Obama getting the Nobel call felt kinda good, fluffy, warm.

But, as the New Yorker magazine reflected, Obama would probably have preferred to get the Olympics for Chicago as a present from the Skandies. “At least at the Olympics the judges wait till after the race to give you the gold medal. They don’t force it on you while you’re still waiting for the bus to take you to the stadium. They don’t give it to you in anticipation of possible future feats of glory, like a signing bonus, or an athletic scholarship. They don’t award it as a form of gentle encouragement, like a parent calling “Good job” to a toddler who’s made it to the top rung of the monkey bars. It’s not a plastic, made-in-China “participation” trophy handed out to everyone in the class as part of a program to boost self esteem. It’s not a door prize or a goody bag or a bowl of V.I.P. fruit courtesy of the hotel management. It’s not a gold star. It’s a gold medal.”

Let’s remember that this is a wartime president. And this war is unlike any war that has preceded it. The Obama administration, according to the New Yorker in a different article, has carried out an may unmanned drone strikes in ten months as the Bush administration did in its last three years.

Drones are unmanned planes, effectively missiles, that are being used more and more in the lawless and impenetrable “Tribal Areas” of Pakistan. Last March the US government allowed Pakistani authorities to nominate its own targets.

Now, while Drones are touted as deadly accurate, more so than dropping bombs (or for that matter packing a car full of semtex and just driving right at the target), according to the New America foundation (which has links to the New Yorker magazine) as many as 320 innocents have been killed by these American robots since 2006: http://www.newamerica.net/publications/policy/revenge_drones

And drones are working. Half of the top 20 most wanted Al Qaeda terrorist suspects have been taken out of service. But surely, the (presumably quite large) families of the 320 innocents are at risk of being radicalized when they see their loved ones vaporized by … well, by whom?

The New Yorker says that the job of piloting these missiles halfway round the world is, wait for it, outsourced. The joysticks are being wiggled by civvies sitting in cubicles in Bartfark Ohio (or maybe not even in the US at all, maybe in the Drone pilots equivalent of a call centre in Chennai, “hello, this is Raj, who can I help you kill today?”).

This makes for interesting dilemmas for the rules of war. Back to the New Yorker: “If the United States can legally kill people from the sky in a country we are not at war with, other countries will argue they can do the same thing.”

The cubicle warriors could be considered by international law to be engaged in warfare, when, viewed from the neighbouring cubicle, they are just jiggling an Xbox.

/JL

What's Next?

It's not been an epic year in the sense of the sort of epic year that saw the Berlin Wall come down, or the Tianenman Square massacre, or the death of Princess Diana, but something is happening dammit, and here at HDEO we want to try to catch the Zeitgeist, whatever it may be. There's a smell in the air, a crackle, a whiff.

 

Take a look around you. Market capitalism in tatters. A black president shaking hands with Hugo the Chavez. A German Pope calling for a Palestinian state. British MPs caught in the strobelight guzzling from the honey jar. And peppering the mix, a global pandemic poised to strike in November and leave us all with a nasty dose of the sniffles, or much worse.

 

And yet the moneymen and women - the bread heads as the Young Ones called them when they grew up - are telling us that we've turned the corner, weathered the storm, bottomed out, and so on.

 

The Financial Times that I picked up in Minsk's gargantuan but eerily empty airport a couple of days ago told me cheerily that when stocks rally, as they appear to be doing now, then an economic recovery is but six months away.

 

Hurrah! Let joy be unconfined! In six months then we'll all be reverting to type, snapping up bargain villas in Bougainville and jetting off to Frijiliana, cigars chomped in our golden teeth, gargling with Krug. Well yes, some of the fatter cats certainly will, as they have been all through this crisis.

 

But what HDEO sees coming is a jobless recovery. Where money will continue to make money, and winter will breed discontent. The stimulus, the stress tests, the bailouts are very very good for management consultants, accountants and other bottom feeders, and it is they, their ilk and their white collars who will jump aboard this heaven-sent gravy train. They will continue to preach the gospel of caution and live high on the hog without reinvesting and creating the jobs which are being whittled away right now. And they will deny, negate and repudiate the simple truth - if Joey Sixpack ain't got a job then there's no one to buy, sell, invest, renovate, consume, create.

 

Look around you again. Corporate kidnapping in France. Chinese workers striking, soup kitchens in central Moscow, riots in the Baltics and windows smashed in the City of London.

 

The plain fact is we don't trust the bread heads any more. We don't believe the nice young men in suits and big shiny chins who shout "RECOVERY" on TV business programmes. What we do believe is the depressing stuff, that joblessness is way up, double digit stuff in many places, and we've all got less of the folding stuff in our pockets.

 

For many its a case of tightening the belt and going back to the way we lived in the 80s. Jus the two TVs then, and the one car, and the one holiday. Shopping in Lidl rather than Tescos. A bit of a pain in the arse to have to wallow in that gloom and doom again, but no biggie.

 

But for many millions more it means the loss of the roof over their head, the dissolution of the family, the end of education for the kids, the death of hope. And how long will those millions stay cowed? Can they be fobbed off with a fabled recovery in six months when the rain is pouring down on them right now? And don't forget, in six months - ACHOO!

 

I'm humming a Kirsty McCall lyric right now, and it goes sumthin like this:

 

From the sharks in the penthouse to the rats in the basement
It's not that far

To the bag lady frozen asleep on the church steps
It's not that far
Would you like to see some more?
I can show you if you'd like to

http://www.kirstymaccoll.com/music/lyrics/walking_down_madison.htm

The new Red Cross Red Crescent campaign www.ourworld-yourmove.org  says "our world is in a mess".  Amen.

/JL